Risk Intelligence
Deterministic rule-based scoring. Every score is traceable through the chain: evidence → rule → score → alert.
Rule set 2026.3 · 41 active rulesLast recomputation: 25 Aug 2026, 02:00 EAT
Subject Entity Score
XYZ Traders Ltd · TIN 101-234-567
Overall Risk Score
0.87
CRITICAL
Band threshold ≥ 0.80
- Triggered rules
- 5 of 41
- Corroborating sources
- 7
- Case
- INV-2026-0012
Contributing Factors
Weighted rule contributions to the composite score
Import-to-Industry Gap30%
Raw material volume inconsistent with declared wholesale activity
Utility Signature25%
Industrial-grade electricity profile on a non-industrial tariff
Employment Mismatch20%
NSSF headcount below estimated production workforce
Permit Gap15%
No production licence or TBS certification on record
Tax Anomaly10%
EFD sales exceed declared revenue by a factor of eight
Evidence
Source records supporting the computed score
| Indicator | Observed Value | Source | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw material imports | TZS 450M | TANCIS | 12 months |
| TANESCO consumption | 45,000 kWh/month | TANESCO | Aug 2026 |
| NSSF employees | 34 | NSSF | Aug 2026 |
| Production license | Not found | Halmashauri | Current |
| TBS certification | Not found | TBS | Current |
| EFD sales | TZS 120M/month | EFDMS | Aug 2026 |
| Declared revenue | TZS 15M/month | TRA / IDRAS | Aug 2026 |
Recommended Action
RULE-IND-014 — Industrial activity without production authorisation
Operational directive
Field audit within 7 days
- Responsible unit
- Compliance Officer, Temeke District
- Statutory deadline
- 01 Sep 2026
- 1Dispatch field verification team to Plot 42, Nyerere Road, Temeke.
- 2Verify presence of production machinery and raw material stock.
- 3Request production licence and TBS certification documentation on site.
- 4Reconcile EFD terminal records against declared VAT returns for 12 months.
- 5Record findings and attach photographic evidence to case INV-2026-0012.
Risk Band Composition
| Band | Share | Entities |
|---|---|---|
| LOW | 68% | 16,875 |
| MEDIUM | 21% | 5,211 |
| HIGH | 8% | 1,985 |
| CRITICAL | 3% | 745 |
Sector Exposure
Highest Scoring Entities
| Company | TIN | Sector | Region | Score | Band | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Chemicals & Solvents Co. | 128-441-020 | Chemicals | Dar es Salaam | 0.91 | CRITICAL | Critical |
| XYZ Traders Ltd | 101-234-567 | Wholesale | Dar es Salaam | 0.87 | CRITICAL | Critical |
| Morogoro Plastics Industries Ltd | 170-441-336 | Manufacturing | Morogoro | 0.83 | CRITICAL | Critical |
| Pwani Timber & Board Ltd | 190-004-221 | Manufacturing | Dar es Salaam | 0.79 | HIGH | High |
| Kilimanjaro Agro Mills Ltd | 112-908-334 | Agro-processing | Kilimanjaro | 0.74 | HIGH | High |
| Tanga Marine Supplies Ltd | 163-220-118 | Wholesale | Tanga | 0.68 | HIGH | High |
| Mwanza Steel Fabricators Ltd | 134-772-118 | Manufacturing | Mwanza | 0.62 | HIGH | High |
| Mbeya Highland Packers Ltd | 158-902-441 | Agro-processing | Mbeya | 0.55 | MEDIUM | Medium |